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The Death of Probability?
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The Death of Probability?

By Sam Gutterman
In these days of a pandemic, climate change, super-high unemployment, and low interest rates, it can be difficult to maintain that future events can be represented by probability distributions. Shocks due to unanticipated disruptions and not-well-behaved trends contribute to this skepticism.

The Future
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The Future

By Sam Gutterman
Regular readers (thank you, of course) of this column have gotten used to my focus on uncertainties and risks, key aspects of a risk management or estimation process.