Posts From cobrien

The Death of Probability?
End Paper

The Death of Probability?

By Sam Gutterman
In these days of a pandemic, climate change, super-high unemployment, and low interest rates, it can be difficult to maintain that future events can be represented by probability distributions. Shocks due to unanticipated disruptions and not-well-behaved trends contribute to this skepticism.

The New Normal
Inside Track

The New Normal

By Eric P. Harding
Typically, I write this column on the day the magazine goes to print. I write it from my office in Dupont Circle, in Washington, D.C.—that’s where the Academy’s office is located.

Finding George E.P. Box
Commentary

Finding George E.P. Box

By Paul Conlin
Like many actuaries and financial analysts, I have spent the last half-decade hearing the buzzwords “Big Data,” “data analytics,” “predictive analysis,” and various other iterations of the same idea.