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The Death of Probability?
End Paper

The Death of Probability?

By Sam Gutterman
In these days of a pandemic, climate change, super-high unemployment, and low interest rates, it can be difficult to maintain that future events can be represented by probability distributions. Shocks due to unanticipated disruptions and not-well-behaved trends contribute to this skepticism.

The New Normal
Inside Track

The New Normal

By Eric P. Harding
Typically, I write this column on the day the magazine goes to print. I write it from my office in Dupont Circle, in Washington, D.C.—that’s where the Academy’s office is located.