By Sam Gutterman
In these days of a pandemic, climate change, super-high unemployment, and low interest rates, it can be difficult to maintain that future events can be represented by probability distributions. Shocks due to unanticipated disruptions and not-well-behaved trends contribute to this skepticism.
By Adam Benjamin
Illustrations by Daniel Liévano
By Joe Allbright, Alex Leung, Mitchell Momanyi, Rebecca Owen, and Teresa Winer Authors’ note: This piece was written before COVID-19