By Claude Penland
You might be familiar with Harper’s magazine and its Harper’s Index.
The monthly magazine is somewhat famous for including a page filled with juxtaposed facts and statistics of international importance or interest. One line of researched facts will be supported by the next line of supported statistics, or it might be entirely refuted by the next line of information.
The editors keep you on your toes!
I have always found the Harper’s Index educational and interesting.
As I reviewed the year’s insurance, financial, data, and technology news and forecasts to prepare for this article, my radar that detects absurdity, Tremendous Industry Change, and Frank Zappa started beeping at high frequencies.
The population density of attorneys is high in some areas of the country. Marijuana is becoming popular. So are drones. Automobile accidents, too. Internet-of-Things machine-to-machine conversations are skyrocketing. There is renewed interest in monitored skin implants. $2.3 trillion was spent on insurance in the United States. This is where Crash Davis of Bull Durham fame says, “We’re dealing with a lot of [stuff].”
I hope that—in some small way—my attempt at a Harper’s Index based on the industry news and forecasts sourced in the endnotes proves worthy of your time.
Businesses in the U.S.: 30.23 million1
U.S. cyber insurance policies in force in 2017: 2.6 million2
Increase in U.S. searches for “data science” on Google over the past five years: +400%5
Increase in U.S. actuarial job postings that mention Python over the past 12 months: +40%6
Increase in U.S. searches for “python bite” on Google over the past five years: +200%5
Growth in Society of Actuaries credentialed actuaries from 2010 to 2017: +33%7
Growth in Casualty Actuarial Society credentialed actuaries from 2010 to 2017: +46%8
Actuaries in the U.S. in 2016: 23,6009
Lawyers on the island of Manhattan in 2017: 70,00010
Growth of the worldwide wearable technology market in the next three years: +200%11
Three areas of Insurance impacted greatly by wearables: workers’ compensation, life insurance, health insurance12
Percentage of London citizens surveyed who would consider having a chip implanted to help them manage their lives, including tracking health: 40%13
Year Frank Zappa published the song “Who Are the Brain Police?” which included a kazoo solo: 196614
Five areas of Insurance potentially affected by quantum computing: artificial intelligence, actuarial modeling, core systems, data transfer, and data security15
Realistic goal for when quantum computers will begin solving real-world problems, according to Intel’s head of quantum computing: 202816
Five areas of Insurance potentially affected by blockchain technology: fraud detection, risk prevention, claims settlement, reinsurance, and medical records17
Five technical barriers to blockchain technology: scability, lack of standards, storage, lack of governance, privacy18
Rank of Miami’s assets in year 2070 among the world’s most at-risk cities for coastal flooding: 1
Rank of New York City: 3
Rank of Amsterdam: 1419
Rank of Noah among most popular U.S. male baby names in 2017: 220
US IoT insurance premium market by 2022: $43 billion23
Increase in U.S. searches for “gig economy” on Google in the last five years: +1,800%5
Percentage of all IoT devices that will connect machine-to-machine by 2020: 46%24
Year that Alvin Schwartz published the book More Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark: 198422
Value of connected health market by 2024: $36 billion24
Year that Jan & Stan Berenstain published the book The Berenstain Bears and Too Much TV: 198422
Year a self-driving car by Francis Houdina debuted in the U.S.: 192525
Percentage of new cars in the U.S. sold in 2030 that will be driverless, according to Goldman Sachs: 60%26
Maximum percentage of cars on the road in the U.S. 2028 that will be driverless, according to Warren Buffett: 10%26
Percentage of serious crashes that are not due to human error, according to National Highway Transportation Safety Association: 6%26
Of the top four U.S. cell carriers, percentage who sold your real-time location to third parties in 2018: 100%27
2017 U.S. health insurance premiums: $847 billion (37% of total)
2017 U.S. life insurance premiums: $810 billion (35% of total)
2017 U.S. property and casualty insurance premiums: $640 billion (28% of total)
2017 total U.S. insurance premiums: $2.3 trillion28
2017 U.S. premium market share of Top 5 insurers: 19%28
Anticipated 2019 U.S. medical cost trend: +6.0%29
Annual U.S. premium growth, health, 2008–2017: +7.7%
Annual U.S. premium growth, life, 2008–2017: +1.1%
Annual U.S. premium growth, property and casualty, 2008–2017: +3.0%
Annual U.S. premium growth, total, 2008–2017: +3.7%28
U.S. direct life and health insurers, 2017 total employment, combined: 605,681
U.S. direct property and casualty insurers, 2017 total employment: 467,724
U.S. state insurance departments, 2017 total employment: 10,96328
Year global insurtech investment reached an all-time high: 201830
Percentage of U.S. insurtech deals involving an insurer/reinsurer as an investor: 83%31
Increase in U.S. searches for “insurtech” on Google over the past three years: +1,000%5
What keeps global insurance CEOs up at night?
- Overregulation, 2. Cyber threats, 3. Speed of technological change, 4. Populism, 5. Geopolitical uncertainty32
Percentage of Americans with life insurance in 1989: 77%33
In 2018: 59%34
Approximate U.S. corporate pension plan buyout volume, conversions to annuities, 2012–2018: $100 billion35
Expected amount of long-term care insurance claims paid in the next 10 years: $100 billion36
Value of the global insurance-linked securities market: $100 billion37
Estimated amount spent on drones, 2016–2020: $100 billion38
CLAUDE PENLAND, MAAA, ACAS, is a partner with Ezra Penland Actuarial Recruitment.
1 https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/advocacy/2018-Small-Business-Profiles-US.pdf
2 https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2018/05/21/489930.htm
3 https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/09/10/us-marijuana-sales-are-predicted-to-hit-30-billion.aspx
4 https://www.thecannabist.co/2018/02/27/legal-marijuana-rising-insurance-premiums-colorado/100053/
5 https://trends.google.com
6 Ezra Penland internal data
7 https://www.soa.org/about/annual-report/
8 https://www.casact.org/about/thecas/annual_reports/Annual-Report-2017.pdf
9 https://www.bls.gov/ooh/math/actuaries.htm
10 https://www.pressconnects.com/story/news/local/2018/05/14/new-york-lawyer-report-how-many-lawyers-per-resident-each-county-new-york-state/545197002/
11 https://www.forbes.com/sites/paullamkin/2018/10/23/smart-wearables-market-to-double-by-2022-27-billion-indus-try-forecast/#2364e11e2656
12 https://www.naic.org/cipr_topics/topic_wearables.htm
13 https://www.pwc.co.uk/issues/data-analytics/insights/discover-the-possibilities-of-wearable-technology-in-the-work-place.html
14 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who_Are_the_Brain_Po-lice%3F
15 https://www.dig-in.com/list/top-5-insurance-quan-tum-computing-use-cases
16 https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-close-are-we-really-to-building-a-quantum-computer/
17 https://www.cbinsights.com/research/blockchain-insur-ance-disruption/
18 https://medium.com/@preethikasireddy/fundamen-tal-challenges-with-public-blockchains-253c800e9428
19 https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/metadata/publica-tions/ranking-of-the-worlds-cities-to-coastal-flooding/11240357
20 https://ssa.gov/OACT/babynames/
21 https://www.skyhook.com/blog/iot/internet-of-things-sta-tistics
22 https://www.goodreads.com/book/popular_by_date/1984
23 https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/iot-insur-ance-market-to-touch-us-43-billion-by-2022-2018-12-10
24 https://www.skyhook.com/blog/iot/internet-of-things-sta-tistics
25 https://www.propertycasualty360.com/2017/03/15/10-trends-impacting-the-insurance-industry/
26 https://www.propertycasualty360.com/2018/06/06/liabili-ty-in-the-age-of-autonomous-vehicles/
27 https://techcrunch.com/2019/01/09/us-cell-carriers-still-selling-your-location-data/
28 https://www.naic.org/state_report_cards/report_card_ us.pdf
29 https://www.pwc.com/us/en/industries/health-industries/library/behind-the-numbers.html
30 https://www.realwire.com/releases/Investment-in-In-surtech-Helps-Drive-Fintech-Boom
31 https://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/ey-glob-al-insurance-trends-analysis-2018/$File/ey-global-insur-ance-trends-analysis-2018.pdf
32 https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-survey/2018/deep-dives/pwc-ceo-survey-2018-insurance.pdf
33 https://tearsheet.co/insurtech/the-49-biggest-trends-in-insurance-and-insurtech-for-2019-according-to-experts/
34 https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/new-study-reveals-more-than-40-percent-of-americans-dont-have-any-form-of-life-insurance-2018-09-04
35 https://www.pionline.com/article/20180412/ON-LINE/180419943/aon-us-corporate-pension-plan-buyout-vol-ume-to-hold-steady-at-about-25-billion-in-2018
36 http://www.aaltci.org/news/long-term-care-insurance-as-sociation-news/long-term-care-insurance-companies-will-pay-out-100-billion-over-next-decade
37 https://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20190114/STORY/912326110/ILS-sector-grows-11-to-nearly-$100-bil-lion-Aon
38 https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/technolo-gy-driving-innovation/drones/
